The United States Securities and Exchange Commission could approve all 12 of the pending spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange traded fund (ETF) applications within the next eight days.
Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas wrote that starting from Nov. 9 the SEC has a “window” to approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF filings — including Grayscale’s conversion of its GBTC trust product — in the days leading up to Nov. 17, but stressed this was only a possibility.
New Research note from me today. We still believe 90% chance by Jan 10 for spot #Bitcoin ETF approvals. But if it comes earlier we are entering a window where a wave of approval orders for all the current applicants *COULD* occur pic.twitter.com/u6dBva1ytD
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 8, 2023
“Delay orders were issued by the SEC for BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity & Valkyrie at the same time,” Seyffart wrote in a Nov. 8 post on X (formerly Twitter).
“If the agency wants to allow all 12 filers to launch — as we believe — this is the first available window since Grayscale’s court victory was affirmed.”
The reason for this brief window is that when the SEC extended the deadline for a number of the pending spot Bitcoin ETF filings, it selected Nov. 8 as the last day of the comment period.
From Nov. 17, the comment period for 3 filings, including Global X Bitcoin Trust, Hashdex Bitcoin ETF and Franklin Bitcoin ETF would recommence, meaning that they wouldn’t be approved or denied until after Nov. 23 at the earliest.
While the window for accepting all 12 filings ends on Nov. 17, Seyffart added that the SEC could technically make a decision on nine of the twelve applications anytime before Jan. 10.
While the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF is in no way guaranteed, both Seyffart and Balchunas predict a 90% chance of an approval sometime before Jan. 10 next year.
Grayscale in talks with SEC over GBTC conversion
While market pundits eagerly await the SEC’s decision, crypto asset manager Grayscale has reportedly initiated discussions with the regulator concerning its application to convert its trust product GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF, according to a Nov. 9 report from CoinDesk.
According to sources familiar with the matter, Grayscale has been in contact with both the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets and the Division of Corporation Finance since winning its court battle with the regulator on Aug. 29.
As the perceived odds of a Bitcoin ETF being approved have increased, so too has optimism in the crypto market, with the price of Bitcoin gaining more than 30% in the last 3 months. Bitcoin’s outsized rally has buoyed price activity in other major assets as well.
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In the past month, Solana (SOL) gained a staggering 93% amid scaling improvements, while Ripple (XRP) and Ether (ETH) grew 36% and 20% respectively.
While many within the industry are confident an approval will kickstart the next bull market, other analysts aren’t convinced that the rally has staying power.
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