Bitcoin will hit $200K before $70K ‘bear market’ next cycle — Forecast

Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) has “well-formed” evidence, which suggests that its next all-time high will top out at $200,000, one analyst says.

In a tweet on Jan. 27, popular Twitter commentator Trader Tardigrade, also known as Alan, also revealed $70,000 as the next potential bear market bottom.

Stochastic indicator offers Bitcoin bulls historical firepower

For many, BTC price action is still bound by Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles. The resulting price pattern offers one “all time high year” in every four, with 2025 next in line.

Bitcoin’s block subsidy halving will occur a year prior, and from then on, Alan argues, the path will be open to a giant $200,000.

That price tag came about from an analysis of Bitcoin’s stochastic oscillator, which syncs with cycle highs and lows in BTC/USD. Currently, the indicator is printing its latest trough, and if history is a guide, price behavior will do likewise.

The stochastic oscillator is a volatility tool, which compares closing prices to historical averages.

“Bitcoin well-formed structure with stochastic behavior indicates that the next ATH will be at 200K and next floor will be at 70K,” Alan summarized alongside an illustrative chart.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Trader Tardigrade/Twitter

Responses to the post revealed a familiar divergence in opinions when it comes to Bitcoin’s future potential in U.S. dollar terms. 

Nonetheless, $200,000 may seem modest for some long-time market participants, that level being a mere 189% higher than the existing all-time high from November 2021.

Consensus believes that the scope of BTC investment returns will diminish in percentage terms over time, with long-term volatility cooling each cycle.

PlanB eyes $32,000 BTC price next

Equally optimistic in the current environment, meanwhile, is PlanB, the analyst responsible for the controversial Stock-to-Flow family of BTC price models. 

Related: Bitcoin can still crack $50K if gold correlation continues — Chart

Bitcoin’s behavior in January has been a decisive turning point, he believes, pointing to various on-chain metrics as proof of the recovery.

Among the latest is realized return, which tracks aggregate profitability of spent coins.

“Realized return just popped positive! Sellers are now taking profit (green) instead of cutting losses (blue) .. big difference,” PlanB commented on a chart.

PlanB added this week that Bitcoin’s next short-term target should be $32,000, also based on realized price data.

Bitcoin realized return chart. Source: PlanB/Twitter

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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